Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #130480 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/18/2016 7:16:46 PM
Also jumped in on 1000 shares of VXX @ $36.14 based on another set of VIX filters I have developed. These typically trade at 90% win rates but it takes several weeks on average to close out the trades.
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BarTune1 441 posts msg #130481 - Ignore BarTune1 |
8/18/2016 9:34:49 PM
All my trading systems are short term and are based essentially off price-action rather than any fundamentals. The parabolic move in REN has me puzzed. I'm actually a CPA full time and I just perused REN's annual financial statements for 2015. Total Assets at the end of 2015 = $391 million. This is down from $1.4 billion the prior year ... no doubt from write-downs in oil reserves. Total Liabilities at the end of 2015 = $594 million. That leaves a deficit of around $200 million. No enterprise value - nothing. Total revenues last year = $155 million. Total operating expenses = $931 million. Well, it does not take a rocket scientist to see that the corporation is nearly bankrupt. In fact, they were close to being delisted from the NYSE for trading under $1.
Note also there are 77 million outstanding/issued common shares. At $20, where REN was trading at one point today, that puts a value of over $1.5 billion on the company - when as pointed out, they have more liabilities then assets. Even, with no liabilities, they only reported $391 in total assets.
I can't see that alot has fundamentally changed and can't see that this company will ever be profitable. They have some favorable hedges in place for 2016 and 2017, but these are expiring and that is buried in the notes to their financial statements.
I'm no Andrew Left, but I can't see where the current valuation is coming from .... and I can't really see how they can continue long term. To finance some of their hedges, they sold off the upside (entered into collars) ... so even if oil was to go way up ... they wouldn't fully participate because the hedges set a floor but also a ceiling in many cases.
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Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #130482 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/18/2016 9:43:55 PM
REN trading at $17.30 after hours. I managed this trade poorly, but increased my positions twice to an average of $17.56 (I shorted another 700 shares this morning at $19.50). Looks like I'll survive this one but not in any way that makes me feel proud.
I agree that this stock has no right to be trading at its current valuation - I think there will be a correction pretty soon that will bring it back down into the low teens. I'll be putting in a trailing stop on this one tomorrow and hopefully not get out too early (another challenge for me).
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Eman93 4,750 posts msg #130483 - Ignore Eman93 |
8/18/2016 11:04:04 PM
My take on the REN trade forget about the value. First off I believe the market works in extremes, it is constantly going from oversold to overbought, where people find value and others don't. That's why mean reverting strategies work, although they are very slow and painful, not what I like to do.
Second REN just went through a 1 for 5 reverse split, went from 225 million shares to 45 million shares. That soaked up allot of supply. If you think of it purely as supply and demand, you can see demand is overwhelming supply at the moment.
3rd ETF's and other indexes are moving up (buying) everything in the sector, oil and energy are ripping higher, REN had lots of shorts for the all the reasons presented, but overall sector and market is ripping and taking REN with it. It is squeezing out all the shorts. Hence a parabolic move. (note to self, look for weakest stocks in a strong sector and buy the dips) LOL
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=ren&submit=Short+Quote%99
You have 59% owned by Institutions and 14% owned by insiders.
So that's 73% of 45 mill shares, that leaves only 12.15 million shares left. Not much so it dosent take a lot of buying to push price through the stops of the shorts.
If you truly think its going bankrupt, as price rips you should be happy!! Its only a matter of time. The thing about trading is you need to believe completely in what you are doing is right, this is very hard because we all have been wrong so much as we learn to trade.
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Eman93 4,750 posts msg #130484 - Ignore Eman93 |
8/18/2016 11:07:42 PM
Kevin,
What other site were you using for backtesting?
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Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #130488 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/19/2016 9:15:09 AM
I use Stratasearch exclusively now for system development and backtesting. The other system I have used previously (back a number of years now) was Investor/RT by Linnsoft (www.linnsoft.com) . Not quite as good backtesting capabilities but can run using intraday data (SS does not). Does lots of other cool stuff and has really good charting.
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BarTune1 441 posts msg #130489 - Ignore BarTune1 |
8/19/2016 9:34:07 AM
All very good points Eman.
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johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #130490 - Ignore johnpaulca |
8/19/2016 9:53:21 AM
johnpaulca
9,973 posts
msg #130479
- Edit message 8/18/2016 4:10:27 PM
PFE...long 4000 shares at $35.10.
-Pullback below BB40 and then consolidated for about 9 days, lots of buyers sitting here. Holding overnight with stop at $34.68
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out $34.98....took a $490 loss including com.
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Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #130494 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/19/2016 11:49:02 AM
Probably should have taken REN off the table at 16.75 ... still holding.
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johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #130495 - Ignore johnpaulca |
8/19/2016 12:13:45 PM
Kevin_in_GA
3,656 posts
msg #130494
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA 8/19/2016 11:49:02 AM
Probably should have taken REN off the table at 16.75 ... still holding.
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$16.71 is support(BB125) on 27 min timeframe, needs to break this. Resis(BB40) is just above at $17.83. Daily oversold, you will get a retracement.
$17.36...is where the battle is taking place today
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